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NYUGrad's avatar

Very extensive write up and deep dive. But the bigger issue is that the stock is illiquid. less than 300k shares traded per day. I will subscribe to check out your other content.

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James | Slack Capital's avatar

Very fair point! Have to be strategic if wanting to accumulate.

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adamo's avatar

It is really concerning: GAF operates in the United States and is the largest shingle manufacturer in the country. It appears the project has been delayed or put on hold.. They could easily sell the products, yet they are not making progress on completing the project. Owens Corning has proven technology, but without further updates, it can be assumed that the pilot project is not proceeding.

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James | Slack Capital's avatar

Could be numerous factors: technology doesn’t scale, inferior technology, yield/purity issues, unattractive economics (high CAPEX/OPEX), centralised location, can’t secure feedstock from other manufacturers, risk averse nature, purely PR stunt.

We haven’t heard much about these endeavours since 2022, the exact time that Northstar was sending their output samples to every single offtakes in the space. Probably realised their tech was inferior and made no economic sense given Northstars evident advantages.

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James | Slack Capital's avatar

Hi Adamo,

What is so concerning by this? Only strengthens Northstars position. They don't need to build 100 facilities to be successful. As shown in the DCF if they build 15 at 80,000 they will see major success

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